POPULATION, TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
Population,
trends and projections are essential tools in planning for future growth.
They may provide approximations of the demand for housing, community
facilities, services, and other forms of development.
The most recent Census, taken in 2000, provides data on the current
population. This data is
useful in analyzing trends when compared with other Censuses (for the
purpose of this Comprehensive Plan, we will confine our comparisons to
the1990 Census). Finally, data from the 2000 Census provides a benchmark for
making projections out to the year 2020, which covers the time frame for
this Comprehensive Plan.
Before
looking at these numbers, one should understand just how these population
projections are made. The
Delaware Population Consortium (DPC) is responsible for projecting the
population estimates throughout Delaware.
Population projections made by the DPC for Kent County are
presented in Table 2.2. The
DPC was “formed during August 1975, with the goal of providing a
continuing forum for debate and discussion of matters relating to state
and local population growth (Delaware Population Growth, 1975:
U of D, Division of Urban Affairs).”
The Consortium is composed of representatives of various government
agencies and private corporations. Staff
work is administered through the Bureau of Economic Research of the
University of Delaware and is sponsored through the Office of State
Planning Coordination. DPC
continually monitors birth rates, death rates, and other factors that
affect the growth of population and employment.
Many factors go into making these projections and most of these
factors are subject to change at any time.
The longer the time period of the projection and the smaller the
base population, the less reliable are the projections. For instance,
projections for counties and individual municipalities are less valid than
are those for a large region or for the entire nation, and five year
projections usually are more valid than fifteen or twenty year
projections.
The
main purpose of the Delaware Population Consortium is to agree on a single
set of population projections; project out to a horizon of 30 years; agree
upon a single population estimate methodology; conduct annual population
estimates; and review and update population trends using data from studies
such as the Census. Due to
the constant change in demography, the Consortium issues revised
projections periodically. Kent
County is represented on the DPC and uses these annual updates to help
guide future development trends.
Data
For
comparison purposes 1990 and 2000 Census numbers will be used.
As of the 2000 Census, the County population was 126,697, a 13.5%
increase over the 1990 population of 111,648.
In 1990, slightly more than half (51.09%) of the population was
female; in 2000, the percentage of females in the County fell to 50.9%.
Whites accounted for 78.65% of the population in 1990; that
percentage decreased to 73.5% in 2000.
Blacks made up 18.59% of the total population in 1990; in 2000,
that percentage rose to 20.7%. Hispanics
comprised just 2.29% of the County's population in 1990; by 2000 that
percentage had increased to 3.2%. The
median age rose from 27.5 years in 1980 to 31.1 years in 1990, to 32.9
years in 1995, indicating a gradual aging of the population.
Of all persons in the County 25 years and older in 1990, 73.1% were
high school graduates or higher; in 1999, that number rose to 78%,
indicative of a more educated population.
Median family income rose from $33,594 in 1990 to $36,555 in 2000,
an 8.8% increase. Per
capita income rose from $12,726 in 1990 to $20,374 in 1996 (US Department
of Commerce).
The
City of Dover, with a 2000 population of 32,135, an increase of 16.3% over
the 1990 population, constitutes one quarter (25%) of the County's total
population. The next four
municipalities (in terms of population), their 2000 populations, and the
percent change from 1990 to 2000 are as follows: Smyrna, 5,679, 8.6%;
Milford, 6,732, 18%; Harrington, 3,174
(37.3%); and Camden, 2,100 (10.6%). The
remaining 15 municipalities range in population (2000) from
78 (Hartly) to 1,273 (Clayton).
Population percent change from 1990 to 2000 range from -29% (Hartly)
to 255% (Milford). Some
population data can be found at the following sites:
<http://www.state.de.us/dedo/facts/population/dpc.htm>
(population
numbers)
<http://www.census.gov/>
(Census
Bureau)
<http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2001/tables/de_tab_6.PDF>
(County
breakdown)
The
County's total population is projected to increase as follows: 1990:
111,648; 2000: 126,697; 2020: 146,014. The DPC projected that Kent County will continue to
increase at a faster rate than the State as a whole, remaining at about 3
percent per decade. The
only municipality within Kent County for which projections are calculated
is the City of Dover. Dover's projected populations are as follows: 1990: 27,751;
2000: 37,407; and 2020: 34,482
(1999 DPC).
Age Distribution
Knowledge
of Kent County’s age distribution is important for understanding social
and economic structure. A
general classification of the population consists of persons in the labor
force, sometimes considered the dependent population. For the County as a
whole, the labor force population remained the same between 1990 and 2000
at 53 percent (Table 2.2).
A
detailed breakdown of the age distribution of Kent County is given in the
executive summary. The data
figures are from the 1990 Census of Population.
The estimates for 1995-2010 are from the Delaware Population
Consortium projection for Kent County.
These projections have implications for housing demand.
The 20-29 year age cohort is the group most likely to form
households and seek rental units. The numbers in this bracket are
projected to decrease. The 30-39 year age cohort is the group most likely to buy
houses. The numbers in this
age group are projected to increase until 2000 and then decrease slightly
in the future. Finally, the
55-69 year age cohort is most likely to sell their houses and move to
smaller quarters. This age
group is projected to increase through the year 2010.
Number of Housing Units to Be
Constructed
While
the population of the County grew by 13.5 percent during the 1990's, the
number of households increased by a larger amount of 19.7 percent.
Most major municipalities within the County experienced a growth in
population and households. Housing
needs reflect the population trends of the community as a whole.
A demand for dwelling units is a direct result of the increase in
population. The number of
permits issued in the last 10 years can be seen in the following table.
Table
2.1 - Permits Issued 1990-2000
